Chance or Probability ????????

I prefer betting on "Red" in Russian Roulet.....

:D

As far as I know the only games you can make your own odds better by playing well are card games like blackjack, gin and poker.

oh yeah, in case you wonder from my post, knowing the odds i generally don`t go to casinos.

i used to deal in a casino. they don`t have to cheat. the odds favor the house. they are happy to pay the winners because that just incites the losers to play more. the dealers want you to win because they make their pay in tips.
as far as probabilities go-yes anything can happen in the short run and at some point will. play the odds and over the long run you come out ahead. also remember somebody has to be the lucky one and someone has to be the unlucky one. but unless you are one of the extremes it`s best to know the odds and play for the long haul.

Its all about knowing a races and players tendencies. Some people wil lcap spam all day long other would rather spend their time using destroyers. Some like Fez on top others might use c class. If you know how they like to stack your hcances are high if you dont your odds are lower..

Some races probably have advantages over others it is obvious in UC where ship weapon types will cater to the other races exact weaknesses(ie guard`s main weakness is kinetic and maru ships shoot a lot of kinetic). On GC im not so sure of this but I haven`t payed much attention to it either.

The way I see it in GC, if you would fight with a random amount of stacks with random ships, you would win half, and lose half the battles. Therefor if you win more than you lose over a large amount of attacks, you could attribute that to your skill over your competitors, or one person if you only fight him.

Other than that I wouldn`t know what you mean or how you could make usefull predictions about battle outcomes, they depend on several factors, chance always being one obviously.

But since chance in GC doesn`t favor anyone hardcoded, I think it has no influence on results long term. If your opponent changes his stack on purpose, it would be considered skill. If you know his ships but not his stacks, it`s random luck, and half the time you will get lucky, half the time you wont. So short term it might decide the outcome of one particular battle, but long term it will even out and be irrelevant, just like with a coin.

If you really want to talk about a frauded table, the only way to predict the outcome would be ask the individual operator or read his mind, it has nothing to do with probability anymore.

I don`t see how any of that is relevant fortythree, which was my original argument. Assuming things don`t work as they should is irrelevant, not because it doesnt happen, but because it is unrelated to the odds of a roulet table. Talking about a frauded roulet table has nothing to do with probability or odds, which is what this topic is about.

I`m sure theres a forum for disillusioned people with conspiracy theories somewhere, but this was about probability and chance.

Lmao learn about quantum physics then talk lol...

Dagobert, I presume that in your world all opperators are honest and scrupulous individuals, bankers genuinly deserve their insane bonuses for essentially gambling with our money, politicians can be relied upon to make altruistic desicions with no reference to their own interest and everyone fills in their tax returns honestly.
Any system is open to abuse and if you just assume the best because their is regulation then you are every fraudsters dream. I do not assume that food is poisoned due to the fact that no one would benefit from this. However I know from experience that the waiter will pee in the beer.

Actual casino`s are subject to gambling laws and are audited on a regular basis to make sure the equipment isn`t biased. Assuming it doesn`t work like it`s supposed to is meaningless, you might as well assume every time you buy food that it`s poisoned, and every time you buy a beer that the waiter peed in it.

Ok here`s the thing, if you weren`t watching the table before you bet and you didn`t know black had a 4 streak run would your current bet have any bearing on that knowledge? The answer is no. That knowledge has no effect on the outcome so your instinct pushes you in one direction but probability pushes you in another. But both are prone to change on knowledge of how the table is running.

I would bet on black in this givin situation

Honey Bucket you are missing the point. You say the wheel is not biased but how can you be sure? The wheel could be unintentionally biased due to imperfections in the manufacturing process. As for the claim that the casio makes money off the odds, this is of course true but an unscrupulous operator could make a whole lot more from biased equipment. I am just stating that everybody has blithely assumed that the wheel is unbiased. Given the initial statement that the wheel came up black 5 times in a row I am mearly stating that the assumption that the wheel is unbiased could quite well be false.

This thread makes me sad. But a good explanation why superstition still exists: people are not-smart.

The wheel is not biased, there is no reason for it to be. The casino makes money off the odds, but only if the wheel is unbiased and the odds are true.

I can flip a coin and get heads five times in a row.... does that mean that my coin is biased or that I am biased? No. Just because something has a 50/50 chance doesn`t mean that every other time the outcome is going to change back and forth.

You are all making an unwarented assumtion in your discussion. You are all assuming the wheel is not in some way biased. Five results in a row is at the level where I would begin to suspect that the wheel were biased. That is assuming I`d just steped up and started watching, not that I`d been watching a couple of hours when this happened. In that case I`d say black was more likely than red.

One thing that you guys are not considering is.... if you do believe that the last streak indicates that the next roll will be different..... well in my opinion, if something has been happening continuously then it is more "likely" to happen again..... so you might have it backwards..... and I use the term likely loosely here.

Such as if I punch someone in the face 10 times in a row.... what makes you think I`m going to miss on the 11th try? A streak usually means that that outcome, at that time, is more likely.

But as I said before, I don`t think any previous happenings, in a gambling situation, has anything to do with the next go. Every spin is it`s own entity and has it`s own probability, independent of anything outside of that particular spin.

BW, that doesn`t make any sense.... are you even typing in English? Or do you have your OS set to Portuguese again??