Chance or Probability ????????

Deathroe, you keep falling into the "gambler`s fallacy" mindset. Read about it in the link I provided.

Here`s the fact, the house always has the edge in the long run, which means that you have to find other means besides "mathematical probability" to beat the house and beat them big.

So lets say you start betting using your mindset. You might win, and win a lot, for a while. But eventually that "highly improbable event" will occur and you will lose a lot, if not all your money.

Suppose you decided that if it hits black 8 times, you would bet $10 of your total cash ($160 for argument`s sake) on red. It hit`s black for the 9th time. So you double your bet to $20, thinking "ok, it will hit red" but it hits black again for a 10th time. Then 11, 12, 13, and even 14 times. It hasn`t happened in that casino in 20 years, but you were unlucky enough to hit that unlucky streak. As a result, you lost all your money.

You might have won all that money from the house using your system, but that particular time it lost.

deathroe, you should read that link Rag posted.

I tried to explain, best I could, that your argument is based on a logical fallocy...but this is something that`s very counter-intuitive, I know. I`d believe everything that you`ve said, if I haven`t taken a university level statistics course myself.

Yeah, too true.

If you end up doing `too well` at the casinos, they just screw with you and kick you out etc...I`ve read many fairly amusing stories about people who`ve attempted (some succeeded) to crack the casino.

And also, part of the reason why the casino winds up rich is because they use intimidation tactics against folks who do manage to exploit the system in other (and legal) ways besides mathematical.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Past performance has no bearing on future performance. :P

assuming that the events are independent (the dealer at the roulette table isn`t just forcing the results to be black, based on what color previously, to screw with people), then the chances of getting a red is always going to be 50/50

Doesn`t matter if there has been 10000000000000 consecutive blacks in a row. The roulette table doesn`t have a memory, it will always produce 50/50 odds, prospectively. The low probability of getting 10000000000 consecutive blacks in a row is only when you look at the data retrospectively. Sadly, all this seems so unintuitive, which is probably why the casino ends up rich and you, poor.

Well really if ya think about it it stands to reason..if it has hit one color 7 times in order for the 50/50 chance to stand it has to turn around and hit the opposit color leaste 3 times..50%retractable rule applies just as in things like the stock commodities...if not is it really 50/50 chance? great strategy imo

I think the reason some people get confused is that there is another "current probability" people think of, that of the chances of a coin flip keep landing on "heads" a consecutive number of times. For example, 1 toss = 50%, 2 = 25%, 3 = 12.5 and so on and so forth.

However, this is when you`re trying to predict X number of tosses in the future. When all you`re trying to do is do the probability of what the next coin flip will be, it will always be 50%.

there`s plenty of science and math involved - well, almost. but for that to matter, you have to be would be obscenely skilled.

The previous outcome(s) have nothing to do with the current probability. Each spin there is an equal chance for either possible outcome. If that is his technique and he comes out ahead then it is pure luck \ chance.... there is no science or math to support that strategy.

have you been beting black or red?

depends what you where betting befor